Unqualified Advice
Sean Filipow and Daniel Hatke
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Say No to Ferrets: The NAFTA Myth and the Dresden Reality
🧵 Episode Summary In this episode, Dan and Sean delve into the complexities of tariffs, the decline of U.S. manufacturing, and the philosophical underpinnings of leadership. They challenge conventional narratives around NAFTA, explore the historical impact of events like the bombing of Dresden, and discuss the strategic philosophies of Sun Tzu, Lao Tzu, and Donald Trump. The conversation also touches on the challenges of reshoring manufacturing, the intricacies of global supply chains, and the disparities faced by U.S. sellers on platforms like Amazon. 📚 References & Mentions Books: The Maniac (historical fiction on John von Neumann) A Splendid Exchange by William J. Bernstein The Tao Te Ching – Lao Tzu The Art of War – Sun Tzu The Art of the Deal – Donald Trump Substacks: Market Memo: Seeing the Stag from Citrini Research - Companies: Amazon Apple Craftsman Chevron Exxon Unusual Whales 🕰️ Chapter Breakdown 00:00 – Mustelid Mischief: A Ferret Allegory for Tariffs 01:18 – Who We Are: Sean and Dan Reintroduce Themselves 03:03 – Liberation Day and Tariff Mayhem 06:56 – Options, Whiplash, and Quiet Billionaires 09:21 – From Bretton Woods to Financialized Fragility 13:05 – The Myth of NAFTA and Manufacturing Decline 16:23 – America, Socks, and the Imaginary Labor Army 19:02 – Merchant Marines and Military Logistics 24:33 – Deep Supply Chains, Shallow Solutions 29:19 – Nukes and the Trigger Points of War 34:03 – The Compound Effects of Complexity 36:25 – The Tao of Strategy: Sun Tzu, Trump, and Lao Tzu 44:48 – Governance by Table: Three Philosophies Compared 48:20 – Amazon's Tilted Playing Field and Ecom Frustrations 52:48 – Bezos vs. Jassy: Vision, Risk, and Systems Thinking 59:40 – An Economic NATO? Supply Chain Strategy for the Future 1:02:07 – Why We Can't Make a Wrench 1:10:02 – Corporate Whiplash, Lead Times, and Stainless Steel 1:14:14 – The Stock Market Is Not the Economy 1:17:21 – Book Recs and Trading as Human Nature
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