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Official Bull Market, Chinese Exports 800X in 30 Years, Ep. #182
Welcome Back To The Capitalist Investor Podcast! This week on the Capitalist Investor Podcast, the squad discusses the official “Bull Market” definition. The hosts highlight the potential risks and uncertainties that could drive the market down and emphasize the importance of paying attention to fundamentals and earnings. The podcast also covers the Fed's three moves, which could lead to a pause, hike, or cut, and the need for revolving credit to start getting paid off. The hosts question the US's $31 trillion deficit and compare it to China's $14 trillion debt, which is close to 50% of their GDP. The hosts caution that the US has nothing to show for its debt, while China has grown without taking on debt, becoming a dominant economy in the world. The hosts discuss the key differences between past and present exports and how they could impact businesses and the economy. China has grown exponentially in exports, becoming a major player in the semiconductor and technology world, without borrowing money to grow. The podcast ends with a discussion on current events and cancel culture, with the hosts expressing their opinions on the implications of cancel culture. The hosts maintain a defensive investment stance and remain cautious about the current market rally. Additionally, the podcast discusses the potential impact of China invading Taiwan and the resulting chain reaction on the supply chain, worse than COVID, as well as the potential for inflation to skyrocket. The speakers then briefly discuss the U.S. Open golf tournament and provide insights on the course and players. The opinions expressed in the podcasts are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any investment, legal, financial or tax strategy. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. Please consult a qualified professional about your individual needs. Timestamped Chapter Summary 00:00:00 - Introduction of hosts00:00:11 - Discussion on fashion choices00:00:21 - Cool Hand's motto: "look good, play good"00:00:37 - Cool Hand's voice is gone00:00:55 - Discussion on Mexico and healthcare00:01:16 - Diamond Hands Day's birthday lunch00:01:52 - Current market rally00:02:20 - Discussion on exports00:02:39 - Cancelled with current events: someone not allowed on TV00:02:50 - US Open discussion00:03:10 - Officially in a bull market00:03:32 - Definition of a new bull market in the S&P 50000:04:02 - Potential risks and opportunities in the current market00:04:22 - Uncertainty about what could drive the market higher00:05:07 - The potential risks of being too bullish00:05:36 - The importance of a fiduciary mindset and being defensive00:06:16 - The hype and high valuation of certain technology stocks00:06:45 - Sector rotation and the potential for smaller stocks to outperform00:07:27 - The impact of high interest rates on mid and small-cap stocks00:07:52 - Everything has been multiple expansion, not earnings growth00:08:00 - Earnings have been flat00:08:27 - The S&P 500 multiple is around 20, historically around 16.700:09:07 - The average investor is becoming too bullish00:09:26 - The importance of being defensive and not transitioning to high growth, small mid-cap names00:10:03 - The Fed's potential moves and their impact on the market00:10:19 - The need for revolving credit to be paid off for confidence in the economy00:10:42 - Japan's debt is around 250% of GDP00:11:12 - Technical bull market from the bottom, but not back to all-time highs00:11:33 - China's debt is around 50% of GDP, $14 trillion in debt00:11:36 - Discussion on Elon Musk's Twitter chart comparing US and China exports in&
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