The Contrarian Investor Podcast
Nathaniel E. Baker
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Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching 'Invulnerable Extremes': Peter Atwater
This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack. Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity." Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' that indicates a top in markets... Content Highlights Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48) Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52); Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08); How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17); When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16); Background on the guest (24:10); Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37); Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing 'sentiment diversification' (30:08); Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19). More on the Guest Website: PeterAtwater.com; Twitter: @Peter_Atwater; Ways to order the book here. Not investment advice.
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