The Contrarian Investor Podcast
Nathaniel E. Baker
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China Reopening: Underestimating the Impact on Global Economy, Markets With Mike Edwards
This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 18, 2023, with a short clip of actionable highlights distributed to premium subscribers the following day. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up! Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China's post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors. Content Highlights China's abrupt U-turn over 'Zero Covid' is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23); There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08); What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00) Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54); Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return -- especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20); What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31); Weiss's house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02); Background on the guest (37:49); China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36); After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work -- slowly (57:18). More on Mike Edwards Website: GWeiss.com; Twitter: @MEdwards_Weiss. Not investment advice.
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