The Contrarian Investor Podcast
Nathaniel E. Baker
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Prepare for a 'Long Slog' in Stock Markets as Fed Hikes Continue: Bob Elliott
A ‘highlight clip‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Nov. 7, the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Don't want to pay? Take our readership survey and get a month free. Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long 'slog' for the foreseeable future. Content Highlights Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44); There is no chance of a 'Fed pivot' coming anytime soon (7:58); What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03); Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57); The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22); Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19); The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash... (36:21); The Fed's target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues... (38:24); It's hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54); Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44); The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50). More Information on Bob Elliott Website: UnlimitedFunds.com; Twitter: @BobEUnlimited;
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