SA Voices From the Field
Dr. Jill Creighton, NASPA
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Navigating the Enrollment Cliff: Student Affairs & Enrollment Management Today
On the latest episode of Student Affairs Voices from the Field, host Dr. Jill Creighton explores the intersection of enrollment management and student affairs with special guest Dr. Christopher Tremblay, Executive Director of Enrollment Management at the University of Michigan's Taubman College of Architecture and Urban Planning. If you're curious about the challenges and changes facing higher education, this episode offers a timely and thought-provoking conversation. Facing the Enrollment Cliff The "enrollment cliff"—a predicted decline of about 15% in college-bound students—is front and center in this discussion. Dr. Tremblay walks listeners through the domino effect: declining birth rates and economic factors have shrunk the pool of future college students, and institutions are strategizing how best to adapt. He points out that while enrollment management always relied on advance notice through birth rate data, today, the challenge is more acute. Colleges are shifting focus from just increasing headcount to more nuanced "revenue management." Not every student brings the same tuition dollars, so institutions must balance both enrollment and financial sustainability. The episode also acknowledges the hard truth—some colleges may face mergers or closures as the cliff approaches. The Looming Impact of International Policies The enrollment pressures are compounded by changes to visa policies and regulations, making it tougher for international students to study in the U.S. Dr. Tremblay warns of a "double whammy" for colleges: fewer domestic students and fewer international enrollees, as restrictions force many to defer or pursue education elsewhere. Other countries, like Canada and Germany, are stepping in to woo these students, signaling a shift in the global education market. The Crucial Role of Retention & Student Support But it's not all gloom—the episode celebrates advances in student success and retention. Investing in support systems, academic advising, and holistic onboarding not only helps students persist but is often more cost-effective for colleges. Dr. Tremblay describes the value of a "high tech, high touch" approach and advocates for ongoing, personalized support through a student's first year and beyond. He even dreams of a four-person support team for each student, recognizing the complexity of academic, financial, and career decisions. Why Listen? If you're a higher ed professional, parent, or student wondering what lies ahead, this episode delivers valuable perspectives. It underscores the essential partnership between enrollment management and student affairs, and calls for more collaboration in service of student success. Tune in to hear how institutions are navigating uncertain times—and why student affairs remain critical to transforming lives. TRANSCRIPT Dr. Jill Creighton [00:00:02]: Welcome to Student Affairs Voices from the Field, the podcast where we share your student affairs stories from fresh perspectives to seasoned experts brought to you by naspa. We curate free and accessible professional development for higher ed pros wherever you happen to be. This is season 13 on the value of student affairs. I'm Dr. Jill Creighton. She her hers your Essay Voices from the Field host Today on Essay Voices from the Field, we're heading to the enrollment management side of The House with Dr. Christopher W. Tremblay. Dr. Jill Creighton [00:00:33]: He brings three decades of leadership in higher education enrollment management. Currently serving as Executive Director of Enrollment Management at the University of Michigan's Taubman College of Architecture and Urban Planning. He also serves as Director of ACRO Strategic Enrollment Management, or SEM Endorsement Program. Tremblay earned both his bachelor's and Master's degrees from Western Michigan University. He has a post Master's Certificate in Enrollment Management from Capella University and a Doctor of Education in Education from the University of Michigan, Dearborn. Tremblay is the co founder and co editor of the Journal of College Access and has served as Editor in Chief of College and University Journal since 2020. He's a scholar and researcher of Walt Disney, teaching the only college course on the life of Walt Disney called Walt's Pilgrimage. Christopher welcome to SA Voices and today we're going to be speaking to you. Dr. Christopher Tremblay [00:01:19]: Thank you. Dr. Jill Creighton [00:01:19]: Great to be here about the enrollment management side of the house and all the things that are going on in acro. But before we go there, we always like to get to know our guests by asking you, how did you get your current seat? Dr. Christopher Tremblay [00:01:31]: Wow, that's a long journey. But I will give you the abbreviated version. I actually am grateful that my career in higher education I'm now in my 32nd year and it started because I was an undergraduate orientation student leader. So I feel like it was the impact of student affairs that changed my life and brought me to this profession. So my first job in college was at Western Michigan University as an admissions counselor, actually before I even graduated from college, which was an incredible opportunity. And then I got hooked and I just loved admissions. I loved higher education. And then throughout my career I have done college admissions, I've done financial aid, I've done orientation, and have been doing enrollment management, gosh, for probably over a decade now. Dr. Christopher Tremblay [00:02:16]: And I've been at the University of Michigan Talbon's College of Architecture and Urban Planning for five years now. But just prior to that I also worked in College Access within the State of Michigan at the Michigan College Access Network. And I have a huge passion for college access, especially as a first time. Dr. Jill Creighton [00:02:32]: Sitting at one of the university universities that's largest in the U.S. i think you'll be in a great position to be able to speak to what you're seeing in terms of changes. One of the things that we've been talking about in student affairs, and I'm sure more so in enrollment management for about the last 10 years, is this pending enrollment cliff that has been coming towards us. We knew that birth rates in the United States had declined in the Great Recession that happened in 2007. For those of you who were in the profession at that time, it was a bit of a squeeze for everybody from a budgetary perspective. But we also saw massive impacts around housing crises in the country, food insecurity and some other things. And that greatly impacted people's family planning choices. And now we're in a position in higher education where there's, I believe it's a 15% drop off of potential enrollees in universities. Dr. Jill Creighton [00:03:20]: So I would love to start there. Christopher, if you can talk a little bit about how enrollment managers are planning for this, how colleges and universities should be bracing for this and, and what that means for our profession. Dr. Christopher Tremblay [00:03:33]: I guess the blessing of our work is that we always have advance notice because of the birth rate of how many people we think will be ready and eligible to enter college. And so we do have that lead time, but it is definitely a challenging time. While we're still trying to increase the percentage of high school graduates going to college so that we can increase college attainment rates, we know that the starting pool is much smaller and will get smaller for the next. I mean, basically indefinitely from the data that we're seeing from Wiche in terms of high school projections. So it's definitely putting a lot of pressure on colleges and universities. And I would say really enrollment management is shifting to be more about revenue management. And this is where it gets very delicate because cost is one of the primary barriers for students and families as the cost of higher education has increased and there's been less investment at the federal and state level. And so therefore the cost burden is being passed on to the students. Dr. Christopher Tremblay [00:04:29]: So really our job is to really articulate the value of higher education and showcase its benefits both financially as well as personally and professionally, and that the workforce needs higher skill levels for those who are graduating from high school. And certainly, I think all of us who are in higher education are proponents of. There are many pathways to post secondary education and some of that might include pursuit of what we would have deemed work in the trades. But like for example in Michigan, that training for the trades predominantly is offered at our community colleges and that is going to college. And so part of it's also shifting the mentality still that college is an option for everybody and that there are multiple pathways to pursuing. Dr. Jill Creighton [00:05:13]: I think that's an interesting credential framing that you've mentioned that enrollment management is shifting to more revenue management. Can you talk more about what that means to the profession? Dr. Christopher Tremblay [00:05:23]: Historically, as I always experienced the work in enrollment management, it was always about headcount and the number of bodies that you enrolled and the number of students. And I think there's more of a movement and has been for a number of years of counting, you know, headcount equivalent. So in other words, not every student is enrolled full time. Some students might be dual degree and so their revenue may be split. And so really using projections that showcase both enrollment but also tuition revenue. Because at the end of the day also not every student brings in the same amount of revenue because you have different tuition rates, you have different lengths of degrees. For example, in my particular college, we have degrees that are four year
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