Stephan Livera Podcast
Stephan Livera
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Debt, Oil, AI and Bitcoin: A Gradual Print Until It Isn't | James Lavish SLP784
James Lavish explains why he expects a gradual print to turn into a big one, what weak Treasury auctions signal, and what he got wrong about Bitcoin this cycle. Timestamps 00:00 — Intro 00:48 — Markets: Warsh, Oil and a Narrow Rally 04:22 — How Much Debt Will AI Need? 08:41 — Outgrowing the Debt: A Polite Fiction 10:50 — Brent at $108, 10-Year at 5.13% 13:44 — Weak Auctions and Who Buys Treasuries 15:54 — Oil Shock: Supply, Not Demand 18:03 — If CoreWeave Trips: The Downside Case 19:56 — How the Fed and Treasury Would Respond 24:15 — The Base Case: Growth and Nominal Inflation 28:49 — Big Print or Gradual Print? 32:58 — Gradual Until All Bets Are Off 34:07 — Why Faith in the Dollar Breaks Slowly 38:11 — What James Got Wrong This Cycle 39:54 — Decentralization and Politics as Hurdles 41:59 — JPMorgan's Shift and Career Risk 43:45 — Why Bitcoin Over AI?
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