The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary
Mike Goodman and Michael Caley
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The new rules on injuries are creating a massive hidden advantage and no one has noticed?
The various rules that the IFAB implemented to speed up play across soccer appear to be working. The ball is in play more, there are shorter delays before restarts from throw-ins and goal kicks, and there are many fewer delays for treatment on the pitch. But that last rule, which disincentivizes treatment by forcing players who receive treatment to stay off the pitch for another minute, is creating a strange situation where teams have a massive one-minute advantage, effectively a power play. We discuss just how large this advantage is, why it's even bigger than expected, and how this could become a big story soon. Expecting Goals blog: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-football-injury-delays-xg-advantage Note: some of the numbers in this podcast were scaled too high because of a clumsy miscalculation. The advantage in shots is about 20 to 3 over a match and the advantage in xG about 2.1 to 0.2. All the ratios and the overall advantage are still correct. Support the show
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