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Thursday - March 19, 2026
Brian Szytel recaps a volatile, mostly down trading day with a late rally that still ended negative, warning against trying to time markets off Middle East headlines as volatility persists absent de-escalation. He notes Brent spiked to 111 then closed near 107 and WTI around 95–96 amid strikes affecting global LNG and energy infrastructure, and argues oil over 100 can shave GDP over time; markets appear priced for tensions to abate, with repricing risk if the conflict drags on. Offsetting positives include $160B in Q1 tax refunds (up 14% YoY), a shift from QT to balance-sheet expansion, GSE mortgage purchases, and financial deregulation reducing bank reserve requirements. He explains Strait of Hormuz risk (20% of global supply) drives prices, with speculation playing a role; the U.S. still imports ~35% of consumption. Data: jobless claims 205 vs 215, Philly Fed beat, wholesale inventories -0.5%, new home sales 587 vs 719. 00:00 Market Volatility Recap 00:55 Oil Shock and GDP Drag 01:43 Tailwinds Stimulus 03:12 Timing the Crosscurrents 04:14 Hormuz and Price Mechanics 05:18 US Imports and Refinery Reality 05:53 Economic Data Scorecard 06:36 Close and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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